Readers split on Anthropic's IPO filing: Damodaran says $1.475 trillion, Burry says "catastrophically vulnerable," House progressives draft a no-bailout resolution

Valuations and warnings poured out within two days of Anthropic's IPO filing, made public Oct. 26.

Aswath Damodaran, the NYU valuation professor, estimated Anthropic's equity at about $1.475 trillion in an Oct. 28 blog post, "at the lower end of the offer pricing range." He assumed revenue near $1 trillion in a decade, a 32.5% operating margin (27.5% after regulatory drag), a 9.74% cost of capital and a 10% chance of failure, with about $100 billion of IPO proceeds counted as cash. The X post sharing it drew 1,300 likes.

Michael Burry, the "Big Short" investor, is on the other side. Per Business Insider, he wrote on Substack that circularity and connectedness "leave the entire organism catastrophically vulnerable either on a pause or on the way down." He cited about $537 billion in compute purchase commitments, roughly 12 times current annualized revenue, and said growth is slowing: about 46% from Q2 to Q3 after 144% from Q1 to Q2. First-half revenue topped $16 billion, up 14-fold.

Politics followed. The American Prospect reports Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) wrote a seven-page, nonbinding House resolution telling Congress to refuse extra funds or exceptional regulatory support for firms that collapse from AI-market stress. The outlet put Anthropic's 10-year obligations at $518 billion to $807 billion, up to 80% non-cancellable, and said Anthropic attributed much of its $80.7 billion first-half loss to an accounting change. The listing is scheduled for next month.