OpenAI wanted $30B but got $11B; odds Anthropic announces an IPO this month fell from 85% to 57% in a week

"OpenAI raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation," a post on X said on Nov. 6 (about 970 likes). Barely a month earlier the round had been reported as $30 billion at $1.4 trillion, so replies split between "the AI heat is fading" and "it is still 47% above March." We checked the numbers against reporting.

According to the Wall Street Journal, as relayed by Digital Daily, OpenAI received $11 billion (about 16 trillion won) on Nov. 6 as the first tranche of a round valuing it at $1.25 trillion. That is less than half the original target of $30 billion or more. The round could reach $20 billion in total, with the rest expected within weeks. OpenAI declined to comment. Bloomberg had reported on Sept. 29 that OpenAI planned to raise more than $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation; the WSJ said the target was cut after public markets fell. In March OpenAI raised $122 billion at $852 billion. The new valuation is about 47% higher than that, but the first tranche is less than a tenth of March's raise.

Anthropic is showing a signal too. Citing CNBC, Financial News reported that on the prediction market Kalshi, the odds Anthropic announces an IPO this month fell from above 85% a week ago to 57%, and the odds of an announcement this year fell from 90% to 68%. Anthropic has filed a preliminary prospectus (S-1). On X, a post citing the Financial Times said Anthropic is targeting a listing before Thanksgiving at a $1.5 trillion valuation (about 1,550 likes), while another said investors are discussing $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion (ZeroHedge, about 1,440 likes). The ranges differ, so a final price is not set.

This follows the Nov. 5 day when the Nasdaq fell 5.52%. On Nov. 6 the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, and reports say OpenAI's CFO told CNBC the company will keep investing in AI data centers regardless of the election results. This is not investment advice.