Feature · Anthropic IPO

Valued near $2 trillion but still "junk" after the IPO? Eight reasons Blackstone dropped its optimism on Anthropic

"The key is the credit rating, and it really matters. If Anthropic can't get investment grade, borrowing costs jump. That's good for no one," a portfolio manager who invests in US tech stocks told Financial News (Korea). On Oct. 30 the Financial Times reported that Blackstone, the world's largest private-equity firm, now expects Anthropic to stay in "junk" territory even after its November IPO. Tech stocks lost more than $1 trillion that day. Here are eight points on the filing, the ratings and Wall Street's reaction, with sources attached because figures differ between reports.

1. What happened: Blackstone dropped its "investment grade" forecast

   Citing sources, the FT reported on Oct. 30 that Blackstone told investors Anthropic's $63 billion chip-financing plan would still receive a "junk" rating from major agencies after the IPO. It would be high-end junk but still speculative grade. Blackstone had earlier expected the listing to lift it to investment grade. It is an anchor investor in the deal, called Project North Star, working with banks to sell the bonds to other buyers.

2. How much Anthropic plans to raise

   On Oct. 26 Anthropic published its S-1 filing, making a November listing official. It says it will invest more than $800 billion in AI infrastructure through 2045. Cash and equivalents exceed $112 billion, and even with about $100 billion from the IPO it would need large outside funding, including bonds, Financial News reported.

3. Why the rating matters: investment grade means cheaper debt

   An investment-grade rating lowers borrowing costs. A junk rating shrinks the pool of money Anthropic can reach, because many insurers and pension funds limit junk-bond holdings. Financial News said Anthropic would then have to borrow through highly rated suppliers such as Broadcom and Nvidia. *Investment grade: BBB- or higher on the S&P scale.

4. A rating already exists: KBRA's BB+ in June

   Dealroom's summary says Kroll Bond Rating Agency assigned Anthropic BB+ in June, one notch below investment grade, using limited financial data and a risk-score method rather than a standard credit model. The FT first reported it on Oct. 16. Financial News said none of the Big Three (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) has rated the company yet; smaller agencies give junk grades.

5. The yield: about 8.5% on junior debt

   Dealroom said an earlier chip financing (described as $35 billion, led by Apollo with Blackstone) included about $4.4 billion of junior debt rated BB+ that sold at roughly an 8.5% yield. Senior debt guaranteed by Broadcom paid 5.75%. Reports differ on the size of the financing, so this item follows Dealroom's summary.

6. How the market took it: $1 trillion gone the same day

   NBC News reported tech stocks lost more than $1 trillion on Oct. 30, with the Nasdaq 100 down 3.4% in afternoon trading. Financial News said Blackstone's outlook hit tech shares hard. NBC itself pointed to Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results and AI spending worries, and did not mention Anthropic.

7. Wall Street skepticism: the blank in the filing

   "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman said on CNBC on Oct. 29 that it is clear Anthropic's revenue growth has slowed sharply, and called the empty most-recent-quarter revenue line in the S-1 "extremely negative." Anthropic reportedly told investors Q3 revenue was $16.8 billion and adjusted profitable. The top comment on the CNBC video (189 likes): "These companies go public right after the high-growth phase, and big holders hand the shares to retail."

8. Governance: who watches a public-benefit company?

   Bloomberg Law noted that as a public benefit corporation Anthropic must legally balance profit with its safe-AI mission, but there are few outside checks after the IPO: little case law, no national regulatory consensus, few routes for shareholders. The board is tightly controlled by the founders and a trust that includes former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. The full piece is paywalled.